Fears of job loss are generally assuaged by the
assertion that those jobs will give way to better jobs, which is better for
everyone. If coffee shops are automated, then people who would be baristas can
become nurses and technologists, positions perceived to be of more value to
society. However, these “better” positions require more training, typically in
the form of extensive schooling, than the jobs they represent an upgrade from.
And while it may be admitted that many of these jobs are more “challenging”,
what isn’t acknowledged is that such a position is therefore more demanding on
the worker. Someone with the talent to be an excellent barista does not
necessarily have the talents to be a nurse or lab technician. For the jobs that
are just a step above the jobs currently being automated it may very much be
the case that the only barrier to the vast majority of the population is a lack
of education. But to think it will remain that way is nothing short of naive.
With the trend towards automation of so-called menial tasks, and the nature of those tasks becoming increasingly complex, it seems only natural that it is simply a matter of time until automation reaches more sophisticated occupations such as stock traders. With each automation wave, the population will be required to upgrade their skills so that they can take on increasingly sophisticated occupations. The problem with this is that lack of education isn’t the only barrier. That some people are incapable of performing at the required mental and physical level of increasingly sophisticated professions will become more painfully obvious as more people are forced into such positions.
Wait! What about creative professions? Yes, people
will be able to move into creative professions such as making music and art,
and no doubt the audience will increase owing to increased leisure time due to
all the automation. However, as with technically demanding jobs, not everyone
will be cut out for creative professions. And further, assuming that creative
professions will remain unaffected by automation is wishful thinking. How does
a struggling artist compete when the chart toppers are computer programs? Why
bother with years of medical school when neurosurgery is solely the domain of
sophisticated computers and robots?
Okay, so the end of this vector is mass
unemployment. But is this a bad thing? After all, everyone gets leisure time
and their needs are met by automated systems, right? Actually, it’s a terrible
thing. For the majority of people, their sense of happiness is heavily
influenced by feelings of self worth, and these feelings are influenced
strongly by their ability to contribute meaningfully to society. But when
computers do everything best, what can a human ever hope to contribute? When
even the design and building of new computers is done by computers, where is
there room for anyone?
Revisiting this I realize that I have overlooked
something very important. I was prompted by Oscar Pistorius' participation in
the 2012 London Olympics. Pistorius is a double amputee and walks (and runs)
with the assistance of two artificial limbs from the knee down. While it is
incredible that Pistorius has been able to overcome the challenges imposed by
his artificial limbs to compete with the best on the world stage, it is also
incredible that the technology for artificial limbs has advanced to the point
where it is possible for Pistorius to compete. Not to downplay his
achievements, but if the best artificial limb technology had to offer were
still wooden pegs no doubt Pistorius would simply be unable to compete. And
with human augmentations advanced to the point where they can enable those with
handicaps to compete amongst the best, it seems only a matter of time until
these augmentations begin to offer an advantage to those who use them. It is
not too farfetched to imagine legs made of synthetic muscle fiber directly connected
to the nervous system offering superior response to the best human leg natural
selection and years of rigorous training can possibly devise. And augmentations
need not be so visible, brain implants could offer a way to improve working
memory, or problem solving, logic and language. The human brain remains
unmatched by computers in many tasks for which it is ideally suited, pairing
the best brains have to offer with the best computers could well yield improved
performance in a broad range of applications and perhaps sooner than such
improvements could be realized through a purely computational approach alone.
In this view, humans are not necessarily marginalized as automation becomes
more ubiquitous, because we start accepting augmentations into our minds and
bodies, enabling us to stay on top of an ever frenzying pace of technological
progress. Upgrading of skills would become easier as we modify our brains to be
more malleable, more capable of learning. Maybe one day one only needs to
download a course to learn it all in seconds, so that the protestations about
the years of training required to stay in the game become moot.
But the spectre of human augmentation raises
troubling concerns. If augmentations are very beneficial, then it stands to
reason they will also be very expensive, which means that their adoption within
the population will be uneven and limited. And as these augmentations will
improve one's utility, they will directly affect one's earning power, further
widening the gap between the rich and poor. Those who race along with the
accelerating tide of technological advancement will become a decreasing
minority of the population. So while a highly automated future may have room
for some people, it will only have room for the elite. And that is without
addressing the ethical, moral, and philosophical issues brought up by such
augmentations in the first place.
In the long term though there is still no place
for humans doing anything useful. Either augmented humans eventually become too
encumbered by biological limitations to match the pace of progress and fall by
the wayside, or the integration between man and machine becomes so complete
that to talk of the useful actors as human in the sense we understand it now
has no real value.
